The outlook for 2009 for automakers could hardly be bleaker. Tight credit and a weak economy have battered the bottom lines of the world's most profitable manufacturers and thrown the future of others into doubt. A season typically marked by buzz over new and upcoming models is, this year, characterized by uncertainty instead.
What is clear is that November is likely to bring another set of unhappy milestones. Analysts expect U.S. auto sales for November to be as much as 34% below last year's figure. That would put the industry on track to post year-to-date sales through November of between 10.5 million and 11.5 million vehicles, a steep drop from 16.1 million for the same period in 2007. Worse yet, a year-to-year decline in November sales would mark the 13th consecutive monthly drop in auto sales, an ominous sign that the slump will continue into next year.
A number of factors have contributed to the gloomy climate. General malaise over the souring state of the economy has consumers thinking twice about making big-ticket purchases. Willing buyers who would have qualified for loans a year ago are now being turned away courtesy of the global credit crunch. Meanwhile, television images of Big Three executives begging Congress for a $25 billion bailout and widespread talk of possible bankruptcy aren't likely to inspire much confidence.
Still, global automakers from Ford to Ferrari have high hopes for a raft of innovative new cars due to hit dealerships for the 2009-10 model year. Our list of must-drives for next year includes vehicles of all stripes, from thrifty-yet-fun gas-sippers to ultra-luxury coupes.
The class of 2009-10 includes a number of new gas-electric hybrids. Honda, for one, is rebooting its Insight brand name. The company's smaller 1999 Insight hybrid was quickly overshadowed and far outsold by the Toyota Prius. This time, at about $19,000, Honda promises the Insight will be one of the least expensive hybrids on the market. But, Ford is also introducing its first hybrid sedan, the $27,270 Fusion, and Toyota will unveil the next-generation Prius in early 2009.
Not all are aimed at penny-pinchers discouraged by this year's high prices at the pump. General Motors is selling a $72,865 gas-electric version of its slick Cadillac Escalade. The heavy SUV boasts fuel economy of up to 21 miles per gallon. And, after years of sticking to its diesel guns, Mercedes-Benz is finally getting in on the hybrid act with its $100,000-plus gas-electric S-Class. For its part, BMW is aiming its $43,900 335d at fuel-economy-minded drivers. That model sips diesel fuel and ekes out up to 36 mpg.
Four-door coupes appear to be another trend for 2009. Once a small niche occupied most prominently by Mercedes-Benz, other manufacturers have rushed in at all price points. Volkswagen hopes drivers will flock to its $26,790 CC as a sportier alternative to more common sedans. Porsche and Aston Martin will go head-to-head with the Panamera and Rapide, respectively, both four-dour coupes with $100,000-plus window stickers.
Next year might have been a boom year for the auto industry given the wide range of interesting, must-drive vehicles headed to the U.S. Unlikely as that may now be, the fate of new vehicles for 2009-10 remains to be seen. However, now that the Big Three have been forced to trim their development expenses for new models—and other carmakers may be forced to follow suit—2010 probably won't offer the same variety of new cars as this year coming up.
10 Must-Drive Vehicles for 2009
- 2010 Mazda 3, Base Price: $15,500 (est.)
Mazda's designers have entirely restyled the compact 3, giving it bolder head lamps and body curves. Those additions push it further into baby-BMW territory.The Mazda 3 already featured some of the best driving dynamics in the crowded sporty compact market. Refinements to that chassis promise to deliver better handling and acceleration.
- 2010 Honda Insight, Base Price: $19,000 (est.)
Honda is rebooting the Insight brand name. The company's smaller 1999 Insight hybrid was quickly overshadowed and far outsold by the Toyota Prius. Honda promises the Insight will be one of the least expensive hybrids on the market. Still, it should eek out as much as 45 miles per gallon.
- 2009 Ford F-15, Base Price: $20,345
What's New: America's best-selling truck has been entirely redesigned. Ford's designers took styling cues from the larger Super Duty Series trucks. Aside from the rough and tumble styling, Ford has improved nearly every aspect of its mainline truck. Three new V8 engines offer more horsepower and a new six-speed transmission promises a less truck-like driving experience.
- 2010 Toyota Prius, Base Price: $22,000 (est.)
Little is known about the next-generation Toyota Prius, but anticipation is mounting before its widely expected debut in January 2009 at the Detroit International Auto Show. Earlier this fall this picture of its design leaked onto the Internet, and Toyota confirmed that it was indeed the third-generation Prius. The third iteration of the world's most popular hybrid is going to face more competition than it ever has. To keep pace, Toyota is going to have to make big improvements in efficiency and trim.
- 2009 Volkswagen CC, Base Price: $26,790
Volkswagen is testing the desire for large, four-door coupes made popular at higher price-points by luxury manufacturers including Mercedes-Benz. The sleek lines on the CC echo those on vehicles with base prices starting at twice this. VW's rowdy VR6 280 horsepower engine is an available option on higher trim models.
- 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid, Base Price: $27,270
A restyled Fusion receives an oversize front grill sporting Ford's trademark three-bar design. This gas-electric version of the Fusion, which uses components from Ford's popular Escape SUV, is an all-new addition to the company's hybrid lineup. The Fusion Hybrid's gas-electric components pushes top end fuel economy to 39 miles per gallon, more than Toyota's Camry Hybrid. The Fusion Hybrid is also capable of operating in electric-only mode up to 47 miles per hour, burning no gas whatsoever.
- 2009 Nissan 370Z, Base Price: $29,930
Nissan refreshes its hot little roadster even as the company tries to green up the rest of its lineup. This sixth iteration of the Z roadster features sleeker body lines, marginally reminiscent of the company's GTR super car. The Z's new 3.7-liter V6 pumps out 332 horses, 26 more than the previous version, and a seven-speed automatic transmission is an option.
- 2009 Lexus IS Convertible, Base Price: $35,000 (est.)
The convertible version of Lexus' popular IS sport sedan is all new for 2009. It arrives to replace the company's aging SC 430 coupe. The quick-folding roof is made of ultra-light aluminum, promising to operate quietly and without negative effect on the vehicle's handling.
- 2009 Audi Q5, Base Price: $39,000 (est.)
Audi is late to the luxury baby-crossover party, but this Q5 is a handsome competitor to vehicles like the Acura RDX, BMW X3, and Infiniti EX35. With the large Q7, Audi proved it could turn out a crossover that handles muck like its Autobahn-forged sports sedan. The Q5—with a 3.2-liter, 6-cylinder power-plant that creates 270 horses—promises to do much the same.
- 2010 Cadillac SRX, Base Price: $40,000 (est.)
The all-new, next-generation Cadillac SRX crossover moves away from the long, station wagon look of the previous version. This smaller vehicles seats just five. The SRX takes cues from the hot-selling CTS sedan and promises to wrap that vehicle's performance in an SUV-like package.
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